A perspective by Leonardo Piazza
A reliable forecast needs realism.
A forecast should support decisions, not make expectations look better.
Understand the opportunities
A forecast is not a wish list. What matters is which opportunities are credible: is there a clear next step, access to decision-makers and visibility of risks? A full pipeline is not the same as deals being ready for a decision.
Make assumptions explicit
In my view, forecast quality is a leadership issue. Overly optimistic forecasts affect resources, investment, expectations and trust. Realism is not pessimism: it means professional assessment based on understandable assumptions.
The guiding question
What evidence supports the expected close, and which unanswered questions could change the assessment? A forecast should not try to impress. It should create the most realistic basis possible for decisions.